Out of the blue divorces

Imagine you’re a divorce lawyer – and indeed you may be. Now imagine that every time one of your clients comes to see you to finalise their divorce papers, you routinely ask them a couple of questions about the state of their marriage. Six months to a year before the divorce, you ask, how happy were you with your relationship? And how often did you quarrel? I’m guessing that you’d expect most of your clients to say either that they were “unhappy“, or that they quarreled “a lot“, or both.

The reality may surprise you. It certainly surprised me.

Together with Professor Spencer James from Brigham Young University in the US, we analysed data on 22,000 men and women who were living as a couple, either married or unmarried. Each person was interviewed at least twice over a period of four years for Britain’s biggest ongoing household survey, Understanding Society. Some of the married people subsequently divorced. Some of the unmarried people also split up. But in the year before they separated, they answered exactly the questions I posed above. The difference was that this was what they felt at the time. So there is no danger of rewriting of history in the aftermath of a divorce or separation.

Our findings are published in a new study for Marriage Foundation, out today, and reported in The Sunday Times.

Here’s what we found. Couples who were headed for divorce one year later fell into one of three categories while they were still married.

  • High Conflict couples: 9% of UK divorces were preceded by both unhappiness and a lot of quarreling
  • Unhappy couples: 31% were preceded by unhappiness but only some or no quarreling
  • Low Conflict couples: 60% were preceded by both happiness and only some or no quarreling

56 Happy divorceIt’s easy to see why high conflict couples divorce. Their unhappiness comes out in frequent quarrels. The atmosphere at home is miserable for both parents and children alike. Divorce comes as a huge relief to everyone. The big surprise, however, is how few divorces fall into this category. Just one in ten.

It’s also easy to understand the unhappy couples. They don’t argue much, if at all, perhaps because they’ve already given up and mentally left anyway. But they’ve stopped communicating and probably give each other the silent treatment. The atmosphere at home is frosty. For the unhappy parents at least, divorce also comes as a relief. That’s one in three divorces.

But what about the low conflict couples? Astonishingly, they make up the majority of all those who divorce. Among unmarried couples who split up, it’s even higher at 80%. So most people who are going to split up, whether they are married or not, are neither unhappy with their relationship nor quarreling especially. In fact, they looked little different from the vast majority of couples who stay together, mostly happy and mostly not quarreling too much.

So why on earth do so many apparently happy couples split up? Remember that these are not people who might be happy with life but just not with their relationship. They are specifically asked about their relationship. If they were unhappy, secretly or not, there is a box marked unhappy. They could tick that if they wanted but they don’t. They tick one of the happy boxes.

For some of these, divorce will be a genuine bolt from the blue. One person is deeply unhappy and the other hasn’t a clue. That happened to me many years ago, although mercifully we managed to turn things around and make a whole new and better marriage. Or maybe one person is having an affair and the other doesn’t see it coming. The ignorance of one spouse in an asymmetric marriage can certainly explain part of the 60% who are low conflict divorces.

But this doesn’t feel anywhere like an adequate explanation. For the rest, I can only defer to my co-author Spencer, who found an almost identical situation among US couples headed for divorce. Just 15% of US couples headed for divorce could be descibed as high conflict, while 66% were low conflict. His explanations for the happy divorcees were down to a decline in the idea of marriage as a permanent lifetime commitment, changing norms about sticking with a difficult relationship, and a consumer attitude that now extends to marriage.

Whatever the reasons, it’s clear that a majority of divorces – and the vast majority of splits among unmarried couples – come out of the blue. If this is how adults see it, the effect will be magnified for any children involved.

The bad news is that most families who split were neither fighting nor unhappy in the months preceding the break-up. I’ve often highlighted that it’s the low conflict divorces that are most damaging to children, because they don’t see it coming. It comes out of the blue.

The good news is that this gives me hope that family breakdown is way higher than it need be. If most couples who are headed for divorce look near enough identical to couples who stay together, then this strongly suggests that a great deal of family breakdown is a lot more salvageable than previously thought.

If norms and social attitudes can change towards divorce, then they can also change towards marriage.


5 thoughts on “Out of the blue divorces

  1. Have you ever written anything about the number of divorces that are initiated by women versus men? My understanding is that the number is 65-70% initiated by women. It seems to me that this might be a good thing to write about, and analyze what changed? Maybe it has something to do with feminism?

    • Yes, I did write about it a couple of years ago in one our our first papers. Pretty much the entire decline in divorce rates since the 1990s peak has come through fewer divorces initiated by women in the first ten years of marriage. Commitment theory accounts for this really well. My interpretation is that fewer men are marrying because of social or family pressures. Therefore those that do marry are more intentional. Deciding, or buying in, is more strongliny linked to men’s, rather than women’s, commitment. In other words, men are doing better in the earlier years, which then explains why fewer women are filing for divorce early. Any alternative explanation needs to account for this really strong gender effect. I’ll let you read the paper and form your own opinion.


  2. Pingback: Don’t stay together for the sake of the children? |

  3. Pingback: Why it’s low conflict break-ups that should really worry us |

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